This should be one of the central questions as we approach the November elections. How did a projected 5 trillion dollar budget surplus turn into a 400 billion dollar deficit?
Personally, I hold W primarily accountable (although I'm sure he and Rove would say it's somehow Kerry's fault). As David Ignatius comments in the Washington Post today, Bush raided the piggy-bank to dole out tax breaks and other economic stimuli, with dubious results. In addition, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates low, encouraging home refinancing and cash-outs, as well as spending on credit.
The adminstration has encouraged consumption and spending at the great expense of personal and national savings. We may have pumped up some retailers in the short term, but we - and our children - are going to be paying the cost for a long time.
Not only do we now have a huge budget deficit and national debt, the security of Social Security (registration req.) has yet to be solved, we have had net job loss over the past 4 years, durable goods are down, Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest mortgage holder, is facing losses over accounting irregularities, and oil prices are hovering near record highs. Automobile sales are up, which might be good news for manufacturers, but since oil prices will probably keep rising, it's the consumers who will pay.
And low and middle income consumers will pay more if Bush gets elected and attempts to push through tax reforms such as taxing sales rather than incomes.
As president, Bush is at least partially reponsible for this due to economic choices he has made. And the Republican-led Senate and Congress are also to blame for their budget choices.
I don't think Bush or his party have proven that they can manage our government's budget.
If change is to come, it will have to come from the outside. It will have to come from the margins. -Wendell Berry _______________________________________
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